Autumn Package 2026: Competitiveness as a priority while the EU lags behind on poverty reduction and educational inequality 

The European Semester 2026 was launched on 25 November 2025 with the publication of the Autumn Package. Our analysis reveals no major surprises but rather confirms existing trends. Competitiveness once again stands out as the driving principle of this Semester cycle, as was already the case in 2025. The objectives of the Competitiveness Compass are explicitly referenced in the European Commission’s Communication as guiding the Semester process. 

As highlighted in our analysis of last year’s Autumn Package, fiscal sustainability continues to be emphasised, with the notable exception of expenditure related to defence. For these expenses, flexibility is ensured following the activation of the national escape clause in 2025. The narrative promoted by the Commission since the beginning of the new mandate appears clear: competitiveness and defence are elevated to the highest level of priority. While the fight against poverty and social exclusion is acknowledged as an important objective, it is framed more as an accompanying concern rather than as a core pillar of the European Semester and EU policies more broadly. 

The Joint Employment Report (JER) reviews progress towards the three headline targets of the European Pillar of Social Rights. As already well known, the EU is broadly on track to achieve its employment target; the employment rate in 2024 was 75.8% and the 2030 headline target is at least 78%. However, it is lagging significantly behind when it comes to skills development, particularly for basic competences and participation in adult learning, as well as in the fight against poverty and social exclusion. The rate of adults participating in learning every year remains more than 20 percentage points below the EU 2030 headline target of 60%. The number of people at-risk-of poverty or social exclusion decreased by 2.9 million between 2019 and 2024, still too little considering that the target is a reduction by 25 million by 2030. Confirming this assessment, the Commission identifies a trend of continued upward convergence in labour market performance across Member States, while only limited progress accompanied by significant risks of divergence is observed for different priorities of the Union of Skills (notably on the attainment of basic skills and participation in adult learning). In the area of poverty reduction and social inclusion, no upward convergence is identified. 

The Social Convergence Framework analysis, now an integral part of the Semester cycle and the JER, identifies nine Member States subject to a second-stage analysis: Bulgaria, Finland, Greece, Spain, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg and Romania. For Latvia and Finland, this is the first time they are included in the second-stage analysis, while the other countries were already subject to this scrutiny in the previous cycle. Croatia, Estonia and Hungary, which were included last year, do not feature in the second-stage analysis in 2026. The second-stage analysis looks more deeply into the social issues in the different countries and identifies measures and policy changes needed to tackle them. 

The Joint Employment Report also provides a comprehensive assessment of the state of social rights in the EU and includes a set of policy recommendations. Among the positive elements highlighted are: 

• Attention to in-work poverty, which, despite a downward trend, remains a serious concern, with one in twelve workers at risk of poverty in 2024. The implementation of the Adequate Minimum Wage Directive is identified as a key instrument to address this issue, in line with SOLIDAR’s views. 

• Recognition of access to social protection as a fundamental component of job quality. This is a perspective –among others – that we wish to see reflected in the Quality Jobs Act. 

• Acknowledgement of the inadequacy of minimum income schemes in many Member States, alongside a call to strengthen them. While waiting for a Directive on Adequate Minimum Income, the European Semester should enhance member states’ ambition and action in this field. 

• Emphasis on increasing adult participation in learning as a key priority, with explicit recognition of the role of citizenship education as part of the basic skills set. 

• Identification of the housing affordability crisis as a major social challenge facing the EU. 

• Acknowledgement of the need for more efforts to recognise and mobilise the full potential of the social economy.  

At the same time, the JER contains some potentially problematic elements: 

• The encouragement to extend working lives as a means to sustain social protection systems prioritises fiscal sustainability over social rights and limits the exploration of alternative policy solutions. 

• While addressing the housing crisis, the report fails to acknowledge key root causes, notably financial speculation and touristification. 

• Recommendations to increase tax progressivity remain modest and are constrained by concerns about discouraging high-paid employment. This cautious approach limits the potential of taxation as a tool for redistribution. A genuinely progressive tax system that places a stronger focus on multinational corporations and ultra-high-income individuals should be central to building a fairer and more sustainable welfare state. 

• While the essential role of CSOs in policymaking is acknowledged, there is no systematic assessment of the extent, quality, or effectiveness of their involvement across Member States. As a result, comparable and actionable data are lacking, together with recommendations to promote meaningful and structured participation of CSOs in policy processes. 

Moreover, for the first time, the Autumn Package introduces a “Human Capital Recommendation”, which is heavily focused on labour market needs and the skills required to meet them. While the emphasis on education is welcome, the strong labour market orientation risks undervaluing transversal, citizenship and life-encompassing competences. Moreover, the framing of education through the lenses of “human capital” reinforces the tendency to subordinate social and human development objectives to economic considerations. 

The Spring Package will reveal how much of the promising elements will be translated into actionable messages, namely Country Specific Recommendations and the second-stage analysis within the Social Convergence Framework. This is even more important as the proposal of the European Commission on the next EU budget links resources closely with National and Regional Partnership Plans, that should reflect the recommendations stemming from the Semester cycle. Therefore, it is paramount that the CSRs adequately reflect social priorities. SOLIDAR will keep working with its members and allies to strengthen the social dimension of the Semester and therefore the upholding of social rights for all in Europe.